Each week I will take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel. I will examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team, and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I'm attempting to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup but I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide and you will have multiple options which will help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Ben Roethlisberger ($8,600) + Antonio Brown ($9,600) = $18,200
The Steelers take on the New York Jets at home in Week 5 in what Vegas has as the second highest scoring game of the week with a game total is 48.5 points. The Steelers implied number is 27.5 points, and they should be able to roll over the Jets pass defense which ranks No. 26 in the NFL.
Roethlisberger is a master at extending plays with his feet and that allows Brown to wreak havoc on defenses by making big plays down the field. The Jets passing defense has given up the second most 20+ yard plays in the NFL with 17 and the most 40+ yard plays with 7 through four games.
The Steelers pass defense isn’t spectacular and they will yield yardage and points to opposing teams which should allow the Jets to push the pace and keep the Steelers aggressive on offense. Production will come as long as Roethlisberger is attacking the Jets by pushing the ball down the field to Brown, and the script makes it likely that the Steelers will be throwing the ball plenty on Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers ($9,100) + Jordy Nelson ($8,400) = $17,500
The Packers take on the New York Giants Sunday night in a contest that aligns really well for both passing offenses. This game looks like a high-scoring game as Vegas has the total at 48 points. The Packers implied total is 27.5 points and they are favored by seven points at home.
Rodgers got healthy before the bye, throwing for four touchdowns in the first half versus the struggling Detroit Lions defense. Rodgers looked to be in sync with all of his weapons, specifically receiver Jordy Nelson who scored twice back in Week 3.
One of the things that make the Packers passing attack look so attractive here is that the Giants are fairly stout versus the run. They are the league’s No. 9 rushing defense and that will prevent running back Eddie Lacey from being all that involved from a production standpoint in this game. The Packers will lean heavily on their passing game to move the ball and to score points.
Nelson isn’t seeing a tremendous amount of volume but he doesn’t need that to be productive in this offense, and one of the reasons is how much he gets targeted in the red zone. He’s been targeted six times in the red zone through three weeks which gives him great opportunity even with a smaller share of the overall offense. Nelson has scored four touchdowns in 2016 and is off to a great start.
Another consideration is that the Packers secondary is still without critical pieces, and their run defense is far and away the league’s No. 1 unit giving up 42.7 yards per game. The Giants aren’t going to run the ball well here, but they will be able to throw it on the Packers like Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford did in Week 3. I am expecting this game to go over and that means more than enough work for Rodgers and Nelson.
Derek Carr ($8,100) + Amari Cooper ($7,200) = $15,300
The Raiders bring the Chargers into town Sunday afternoon and there looks to be plenty of firepower on display in this game as the total is at 50 points which is the highest total of the week. The Raiders also get a gift with Chargers cornerback Jason Verrett out for the year with a torn ACL. The Raiders passing attack should really be able to exploit this matchup for big numbers on Sunday.
The Raiders have an implied total of 27 points and are favored by four points this week, but they should be forced by a potent Chargers offense to keep the foot on the pedal. Carr has started this season hot and that will continue this week against a depleted Chargers secondary.
Receiver Michael Crabtree went off last week with three touchdowns and that will lead to an opportunity this week with Cooper as his ownership number could be lower than it should be in this matchup. This is somewhat contrarian thinking, but Cooper is still being targeted enough to warrant consideration in this contest.
Pivot: Michael Crabtree ($6,900) scored three times last week and has certainly been the better of the two receivers through four weeks. He’s seen 37 targets total but it is in the red zone where he makes his money. The Chargers are very susceptible in the red zone and the Raiders are incredibly effective in that area of the game. If you’re looking for a piece of the Oakland offense, playing Crabtree is a good move but he’ll be highly owned after a monster week in Week 4.
Carson Wentz ($7,500) + Zach Ertz ($5,600) = $13,100
Wentz has taken the league by storm playing incredibly well for a rookie starter at the quarterback position. He gets an incredibly juicy matchup in Week 5 when the Eagles travel to Detroit to take on the Lion s in Ford Field.
The Lions are one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL surrendering 12 scores through four games. Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 120.6 against the Lions as the Lions can’t generate enough pressure to make the opposition uncomfortable.
The Lions are missing their two best defenders in defensive end Ezekiel Ansah and weak side linebacker DeAndre Levy, and that means they have glaring holes at two levels of their defense. This will allow Wentz to stay comfortable to make plays in the pocket and on the move.
Ertz returns from injury in Week 5 and while it is risky to start players returning in their first week back, the matchup is simply too appealing to not take advantage of it. The Lions can’t cover tight ends and aren’t currently set up to stop them with so many pieces banged up in their defense.
The Lions have surrendered touchdowns to tight ends in each of the first four weeks and that trend will continue in Week 5.
Pivot: Jordan Matthews ($7,000) should see plenty of Lions slot corner Quandre Diggs in this contest and that’s a matchup he’ll win consistently. To be honest, I can make an argument for playing any Eagles receiver except for Nelson Agholor who should see plenty of Lions cornerback Darius Slay. Eagles receiver Dorial Green-Beckham ($4,900) is simply too much for Lions cornerback Nevin Lawson and he could get to value easily here. The Lions are simply awful on defense right now and that makes all the Eagles passing options viable.
Philip Rivers ($8,300) + Hunter Henry ($5,400) = $13,700
Rivers has started the season on a tear and this week he draws the league’s worst passing defense. Vegas has this matchup as the highest scoring game of the week with a total of 50 points, and the Chargers are getting four points in this contest with an implied total of 23 points.
The Raiders have surrendered big games to New Orleans, Atlanta and last week they gave up big numbers to the Baltimore Ravens. This matchup is one that Rivers should easily exploit and the likeliest game script calls for the passing attacks to rule the day.
With Verrett out, the potent Raiders passing attack should be able to pile and that puts Rivers in the enviable position of having to air it out all day in this game. Rivers does spread it around a bunch and it’s tough to forecast a specific player to target in the Chargers passing game except for tight end Hunter Henry.
Henry has filled in quite nicely for the injured Antonio Gates as he’s been a top tight end over the past two games. He’s been targeted 12 times and has nine catches for 133 yards and a score in two weeks as a starter for the Chargers.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Eli Manning ($7,700) + Odell Beckham Jr ($8,500) = $16,200
The Giants travel to Lambeau Field Sunday night to take on the Packers in a game that looks to be high scoring. The Giants have an implied total of 20.5 points and are seven-point underdogs in this game and they’ll need their passing game to be on point to stay in this game.
The Packers run defense is stout, and the running game could get negated fairly early here with the Packers offense capable of getting out to an early lead. This is exactly what happened in Week 3 when the Packers took on the Lions at home, scoring four touchdowns in the first half which allowed the Lions passing game to go off in the second half.
Beckham Jr. is as physically talented as any receiver in the game and he should be able to rip the Packers defense to shreds as they are missing key members in their secondary. Beckham Jr. has received heavy negative attention recently for his behavior on the sidelines, but he is as competitive as they come and the Giants need to feed him the ball as he is capable of a giant day in this game.
The Packers give up an average of five plays of 20+ yards per game which makes them the most susceptible team in the NFL in this category, and this is Beckham Jr.’s strength as a player. I’m looking for a very big day from Manning and Beckham Jr. in Week 5.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,900) + Brandon Marshall ($7,600) = $14,500
The Jets travel to Heinz Field Sunday and they are seven-point underdogs in a game that has a high total. This is definitely a risky play but there’s a lot to like about the Jets passing game in this contest. The Steelers are the No. 30 ranked pass defense in the NFL and it is easy to peg the Jets for a lot of passing volume from a game script perspective.
The Steelers should get up in this game and force the Jets to throw to stay to keep pace. However, with as much yardage as they are allowing, the Steelers should make Fitzpatrick’s stat line look good by game’s end.
Marshall has seen 39 targets through four weeks with 22 coming in the past two games and he should see an uptick in volume with slot receiver Eric Decker banged up and questionable to play Sunday. Yes, this is a risky play but the Jets will be behind in this game and they’ll be forced to throw.
These are good things for Fitzpatrick and Marshall and the pairing makes for an intriguing play in GPP tournaments this week.
Brian Hoyer ($6,000) + Eddie Royal ($5,700) = $11,700
Hoyer has filled in quite admirably for injured quarterback Jay Cutler through two weeks. He’s thrown for 300+ yards and two touchdowns in each game and hasn’t turned the ball over through interceptions.
The Bears travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts in what Vegas sees as a high scoring game this week. The Bears have an implied total of 21.5 points and the total is 47.5 points, so we could see a game with nice offensive output with the passing games leading the way here.
Second-year wide receiver Kevin White is out for a minimum off eight weeks as he was put on IR this week, and that allows Royal to emerge from the pack in this offense. White had been targeted 39 times on the season, and that volume is going to get spread around, some funneling to Royal which makes him a viable fantasy starter going forward.
Last week, Royal was targeted seven times and converted all seven into catches for 111 yards and a score. He should see more volume going forward and looks to have nice chemistry with Hoyer. Royal plays out of the slot and that suits Hoyer very well as he likes to get the ball out quickly, allowing his receivers to generate yards after the catch.
The Bears have a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Alshon Jeffery, but he draws Colts cornerback Vontae Davis this week and that could put Royal in a position to lead the Bears in targets this week.
DEFENSIVE STACKS
Arizona Cardinals ($5,100) + David Johnson ($9,000) = $14,100
The Cardinals go on the road in Week 5 to take on the San Francisco 49ers in an NFC West showdown. Johnson is matchup proof as he is used heavily in both the running and passing games. The 49ers rank dead last in the NFL in rushing defense and Johnson could feast Thursday night as the Cardinals are a four-point favorite on the road but they are without starting quarterback Carson Palmer. We’ll see a somewhat conservative game plan from the Cardinals that will feature Johnson early and often in this game.
Minnesota Vikings ($4,800) + Jerick McKinnon ($6,200) = $11,000
The Vikings get the Texans at home in Week 5 and they’ll get a quarterback that is turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler has thrown six interceptions through the first four games and the Vikings can bring pressure from multiple areas, so I’d expect more of the same from Osweiler here. McKinnon is a value play in this game as he’s seeing the majority of work with starter Adrian Peterson out, and he’s facing a very soft run defense which ranks No. 27 against the run to date. Only three teams allow more yards per carry than the Texans and they’ve also given up the third most rushing touchdowns to date. This looks like a very nice stack as both sides of it are easily capable of getting to value in GPP play.
